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Game 03

Craps: two great bets, forty terrible ones, one very loud table.

The layout is designed to look like a plumbing diagram so you'll ask the dealer what to do, and the dealer is trained to suggest the bets that pay him. Ignore all of it. The pass line with full odds is the second-best bet in the casino, and the middle of the table is a graveyard of 10%+ propositions with fun names. Learn which is which and craps is the best party in the house at a fair price.

Gent's Grade
B+A on the line, F in the middle
House edge0.37% (pass + 3-4-5x odds) Decision leverageBet selection is everything Pace & bleed~100 rolls/hr, low if you're on the line Trap densityThe highest on the floor Fun per dollarThe best in the building

How it plays

A shooter throws two dice. The first throw is the come-out roll: 7 or 11 wins the pass line, 2, 3 or 12 loses it, and anything else (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) becomes the point. Now the shooter keeps rolling until either the point repeats (pass wins) or a 7 shows (pass loses, dice move to the next shooter). That's the entire core game. Everything else on the table is a side bet on some subset of those rolls.

Once a point is set, you can back your pass bet with free odds — an extra wager, usually up to 3x, 4x or 5x your line bet depending on the point, paid at the true odds of the point hitting before a seven. Free odds have zero house edge. It's the only bet in the casino with no built-in vig, offered because you can only make it after paying the 1.41% entry fee on the pass line. Bet the table minimum on the line and the maximum in odds, and your blended edge collapses to under half a percent.

The quirks

  • The "don't" side is slightly better and universally hated. Don't pass is 1.36% vs 1.41%, and laying odds behind it is also free. You're betting against the shooter, and the table will let you know. If you can take the social cost, it's marginally the better bet.
  • The dealers steer. "Hardways for the boys?" "Press it?" "Any seven?" Dealers work for tips and the props pay them the most; they'll never suggest more odds. The right answer to every suggestion is "just the odds, thanks."
  • Place 6 and 8 in multiples of $6 or you get short-paid. Place bets on 6/8 at 1.52% are a fair way to get more action without the come-out; place 4/10 at 6.67% is not.
  • The Field looks like a good bet. Seven numbers win, four lose! But the seven winners are the rare ones. 5.56% edge, or 2.78% if 12 pays triple. Check the felt.
  • Big 6 / Big 8 is the same bet as placing 6/8 but paid even money instead of 7:6. 9.09% versus 1.52%. It exists purely to catch people who don't know the difference. Some jurisdictions have banned it out of embarrassment.
  • Hot tables aren't a thing. Dice don't remember. A shooter who's hit six points in a row has the same 1.41% pass line on the next one. The energy is real; the edge is unchanged.

The house edge, bet by bet

BetHouse edge
Free odds (behind pass / don't pass / come)0.00%
Pass line + 3-4-5x odds (combined)0.37%
Pass line + 2x odds (combined)0.61%
Pass line + 1x odds (combined)0.85%
Don't pass / don't come1.36%
Pass line / come (alone)1.41%
Place 6 or 81.52%
Buy 4 or 10 (commission only on win)1.67%
Lay 4 or 102.44%
Field (2x on 2, 3x on 12)2.78%
Place 5 or 94.00%
Field (2x on both 2 and 12)5.56%
Place 4 or 106.67%
Hard 6 / Hard 89.09%
Big 6 / Big 89.09%
Hard 4 / Hard 1011.11%
Any craps · 3 or 11 (15:1) · C&E11.11%
Horn12.50%
2 or 12 (30:1)13.89%
Any seven16.67%
Best bets
  • Pass (or don't pass) at the minimum, maximum free odds behind it. Under 0.4% at 3-4-5x; some rooms offer 10x or 100x, where the edge is practically nothing.
  • Come bets with odds if you want more numbers working — same math as pass.
  • Place the 6 and 8 at 1.52% if you must have action without the come-out.
Worst bets
  • Any seven. 16.67% — the single worst common bet on a casino table. One in six chance, paid 4:1.
  • The hardways and the horn. 9–14% and the dealers' favourites, for exactly that reason.
  • Big 6 / Big 8. Six times the cost of the identical bet three inches away.
Feel the edge

Run a session before you sit down.

Pick a bet, a unit and a number of bets. The simulator plays 1,000 sessions from the bet's actual outcome table — not a normal approximation — and shows the spread, the drawdowns, and how long it takes before the house edge stops hiding behind luck. Pass line with full odds, then any seven, at the same unit and the same number of bets. That's the whole craps lesson in two runs.

The simulator needs JavaScript. The house edge on every bet is in the table above; the simulator only shows what it feels like.
Advantage play
LEGAL IF DICE HIT THE WALLUNPROVEN

Dice control ("dice setting")

The claim. By gripping the dice a particular way and throwing them with a soft, low, spinning arc, a practised shooter can reduce the frequency of sevens slightly below 1-in-6. If true, it would flip the pass line and the 6/8 place bets to a player edge. Courses and books are sold on it, and some card counters swear by particular shooters.

The evidence. Thin. Casinos require the dice to hit the back wall, which is pyramid-textured specifically to randomise the bounce; no controlled study has shown a statistically significant, repeatable effect in a real casino. The people most confident in dice control are the people selling the seminar. Treat it the way you'd treat a trading course that guarantees returns.

Legality and acceptance. Legal — there's no rule against throwing carefully, as long as both dice reach the wall. Casinos are relaxed about it because they don't think it works; a shooter who consistently fails to hit the back wall will be warned and then made to throw properly. The honest edge in craps is bet selection, not the throw.

The Gent's verdict. Stand at a crowded craps table on a Saturday night with $10 on the line and $50 in odds behind it, and you're getting the most entertainment per expected dollar lost anywhere in the casino. Put that same $60 across the hardways and the horn, and you've turned the best deal in the room into the worst.
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